Eben von Franklin Templeton versandt worden und hier gleich im englischen Original:


"Mark Mobius on the Recent Volatility in Emerging Markets

Given the rout in global emerging stock markets we’re witnessing today, how worried are you as an investor in emerging markets? How much further do the declines have to go? Would you call this a financial crisis?

I’m not very worried because this is not the first time markets have corrected or that we’ve witnessed uncertainty in the markets. Investors should expect volatility, as is the nature of any stock market, but we expect long-term investors to be rewarded. It’s impossible for anyone, regardless of how much experience they have in stock markets, to predict exactly how much a market is going to decline before it turns around. In fact, we’ve already seen how the US Federal Reserve’s 50 basis points cut in the discount rate on loans to banks from 6.25% to 5.75% led US markets to rebound sharply on Friday. Similar performances were also seen in Latin America, while Asia also opened higher on Monday morning. Thus, no one can predict the market direction and a bear or bull market could start at any time. However, the good news is that bear markets are shorter in duration than bull markets and bear markets go down a smaller percentage than bull market increases. This is why one must invest with a long-term view.


Are there any safe havens in the emerging market universe, which might be better protected in this time of global risk aversion?

The best strategy here would be to remain diversified rather than pick one or two countries since it would be difficult to know which market will outperform. Thus, maintaining a diversified portfolio will allow an investor to better manage his/her risk levels. Also, value is the key. The best protection is to select companies that are selling at a discount to what they are really worth and companies with good managements capable of realizing the firm's intrinsic value.


Do you think the current stock market rout is comparable to the financial crisis of July and October 1998?

No, I don’t believe that the current market decline is comparable to the Asian Financial crisis for the simple reason that Asian markets, and for that matter most emerging markets, are in a much better position than they were about 10 years ago.

The crisis in 1997/8 began in Asia and spread globally. Currently, however, Asian economies are better equipped that they were 10 years ago to weather any global issues/slowdown as many have abandoned their pegged exchange rates, decreased short-term debt and built up large current account surpluses and foreign exchange reserves. Most Emerging markets are in fact now benefiting from stronger economic growth, relatively lower inflation and interest rates, the implementation of effective fiscal and monetary policies, stable political environments, improving corporate governance, the enhancement of competitiveness through removal of subsidies and reduction of trade barriers, higher productivity and consumption because of a younger and better trained labor force, and so forth.


Which emerging stock markets are likely to suffer the most in this sell-off?

Again, it would be difficult to make a prediction. Recently, we have seen indiscriminate selling across all emerging markets as investors rush to raise cash in an effort to reduce their exposure to these markets.


What’s your advice for emerging market investors at this point?

My advice to investors would be not to panic. It is very easy for us to be caught up in emotions or simply follow the herd. I would suggest that investors take a long-term view to investing and carefully evaluate their options. History has shown us that the best time to buy is when everyone is despondently selling. This enables us to pick up stocks at more attractive prices. The markets may continue to be volatile at times, but the underlying fundamentals of emerging markets remain in tact."

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